[MR] Pennsic Weather Reports- What do they mean?

[Fletcher Martha]

Posted by Carl Morgan, Forecaster, Meteorology,
National Weather Service on the "Mad Sci.org" website
http://www.madsci.org/

National Weather Service forecasters will forecast
"isolated" thunderstorms when we are pretty certain
that storms are going to form, but we only expect them
to affect about 10% of the area. In other words, 90%
of the area won't get wet.

Just so you know, when our forecast says...

"Widely scattered thunderstorms", it means 20% of the
area will be affected.
"Scattered thunderstorms" means 30-50% of the area
will be affected.
"Thunderstorms likely" means 60-70% of the area will
be affected.
and if we just say "Thunderstorms", we expect that
80-100% of the area will see rain.

Problems arise, however, when that isolated
thunderstorm happens to develop over the most
populated city in the area. When that happens, most of
the people get wet, even though only a small area
received rain. So to many people, forecasters are
"wrong" even when we are "right"! 


So there it is.
See you on Friday at Pennsic!
Martelle von Charlottenburg

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